Thursday, December 5, 2013

Kenapa Kenaikan tarif elektrik berlaku?

Caveat : No bro/sis. I am not writing this to your anticipation of supporting the hike, or condemning it. It’s just a knowledge sharing post. So haters and nay-sayers, save your energy to lambast someone else (Maybe the Minister?). This is meant for genuine knowledge – seeker. Exchange of views are welcomed. and again, this is a long posting so my usual friendly caution : do not read while you are driving. also, this post is not edited therefore editors feel free to edit it and post it. i shall re-post the edited version


1 Why Hike?

As cliché as It may sound, the reason for electricity tariff hike is similar to Petrol RON 95 hike. Malaysia is a developing nation and we are benchmarking our industries/resources management/consumption etc to those of a developed nation. (hey you, yes you. Remembered you said we must always compared to the stronger country to improve? This is what developed nation do). They will always allow the “market” to determine the price of resources. 60-70% of the amount in your electricity bill, are COST for fuel. The rest 30-40% are COST for efficiency (building more transformer, building more underground wyring etc, building more cables).

Many disillutioned Malaysians would then say, eh! Our electricity are generated by Hydro-dam. It’s free! From God! - hahahaha. Do you know that hydroelectricity contribute only 5.2% of our electricity Generation? Most (54.2%) of our electricity are generated by NATURAL GAS. Yes, the natural gas that we need to pay money for? The one that is depleting. You remember protesting against the building of this dam and that dam that would destroy the forest etc? That so far only contribute to less than 5.2% of the electricity generated and sent to your house, to your computer.

natural gas (54.2%),

coal (40.2%),

hydro (5.2%),

oil (0.4%). And renewables - less than 1% of total energy requirements.
What happen now is simple. IN order to manage better our resources, the TNB, as well as countries that shares our geographies, will have to start using “LNG” Liquidated Natural Gas as fuel for electricity generation. It started early this year. And unfortunately, the cost for “LNG” is higher than the not-as-efficient (not cost efficient, but electricity generation efficient) Gas. Why LNG now? Because we have better production of LNG compared to last time. It’s the most Energy-resources-efficient fuel compared to Natural Gas and coal. Environmentalists, are you guys there? LYNAS protestors, are you there? Please explain to the public what does “energy-efficient fuel” means. (environmentalist / natural resources expert should know this better ).

And also, apart from Gas and hydro, we have the COAL. The coal (generate 40.2% of our electricity), too, is supposed to be determined by market price. Market mechanism is very simple, higher the demand, dearer the cost. Why is there a hike in the price of all these fuel Gas, LNG, Coal ? because the demand is higher. Why is the demand higher? Because people like you and me, demand for more electricity everyday compared to our parents. Not only we demand more electricity, we demand more products and services that requires more electricity to be produced. Hence the higher demand of electricity supply, making TNB demand more for the fuel product. And these fuels are almost non-renewable. And of course, we protest against building more dam. : )


2 How about the ever blood sucking IPPs? Is the price hike meant to protect them?

Do you remember one even back in 1992? To be precise, it began on 29 September 1992 . affected most of the peninsularian in Malaysia. And also the 1996 blackout, which was by far the worst capacity stumble blackout the nation ever experienced. Back then we are a booming industry. Everyone threw their support behind Dr Mahathir for vast modernization and development. Do you think any investor would have bothered to consider investing in a country where electricity supply instability? Answer is no.
The then desperate government has no choice but to go to the private sector for help and the 1992 blackout then triggered the privatization of electricity generation. Later on The TNB stock experience a near free fall after the 1996 incident, which showcase it’s incapability to produce enough electricity for the country commercial or residential use back then. But again, private sector has this thing called “CBA”, or cost benefit analysis. In order for a private company to undertake something that is so “unprofitable”, they must be given some guarantee in return. That comes in the form of gazetted Natural Gas (Fuel) Price, based on an Act of Parliament, as well as long term contractual protection :

25 years contract for Gas Based IPP, and 21 years of Coal based IPPs.

Why so long? Why 25 years?

I use simple logic. Think of yourself as a private company like YTL, and think again of yourself as the Government. The Government needed MORE electricity that it’s very own TNB or LLN baby couldn’t produce. To invest in power generation requires A LOT of capital investment. If you, being an investor like YTL, agree to pour in tens and tens of Millions of your own company’s money to built power plant, but risk worrying that the government might not continue your contract (you didn’t even recover your cost), would you have undertaken the contractual offer? No right? So was YTL, sime darby and other companies. The issue at stake then was supply of electricity!

So all these allegations about IPP being subsidized… you might want to consider reframing your sentences. They are not “subsidized”. They are just guaranteed the right to purchase NATURAL GAS at a gazetted rate which is much lower than the actual market price so that they can have enough marginal profit to even consider supplying electricity for the country.

Some Dreamers might say, why don’t TNB just do it all? Why need IPP? Well as I said, TNB, despite being grilled over and over had said that they CANNOT do it. Not enough money for capital expansion (capital investment for IPP were invested by… hmn… the Private companies themselves), and not enough time to accommodate the interest-losing-foreign-investors.

FACT to share here?

Currently, TNB contributes 53% of capacity requirements whilst 47% comes from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in Peninsular Malaysia.

So they are producing almost half of the nations’ electricity. Almost.


TNB and MyPower said, the contract for some IPPs are coming to an END soon in the next 1 or 2 years. The contract will be terminated, and a new scheme called “ Competitive bidding” will be introduced for this IPPs to tender for new projects. How Open this tender will be? I don’t know. But I think the reason for IPP to survive until today were valid.


3 Who will be effected by this tariff?

I would be lying if I sing along the Tune of Government or TNB by saying
“The electricity tariff increase: 4.56 million or 70.67% of domestic consumers won’t be affected”

True, these 4.56 million or 70.67% domestic consumer will not be directly hit by the tariff because the 4.99 sen (PLEASE QUOTE THIS CORRECTLY, 4.99 sen means RM0.0499) and 5 sen (PLEASE QUOTE THIS CORRECTLY TOO, 5 sen means RM0.05) hike only applies to consumption after the 300kw band.

According to TNB, there are 70.67 domestic electricity consumer like the “poor” and “working class” uses less than 300kw electricity per month. The hike doesn’t affect these people at all.

It only affect those who use above 300kw, IE people like you and me who pay more than RM 40 per month for our electricity. (you know, the air conds, TVs, internets, fan, Fridge, lights, microwaves, water heater etc).

But then why I said I would be lying if I say these 70.67% “wont be affected”?
If the hike is going to affect the 29.24% , you are looking at affecting the Industrial players. Industrial players pays A LOT A LOT in electricity. A decent manufacturing factory of 1000 workers packing your maggee mee might have to pay around RM 20,000 per DAY for electricity. Guess who they are going to pass the cost increment to? You and me back.

Having said that the Government will come back with measures, so they said, to make sure such hike or hike-driven inflation will not hit the lower income group that bad. I am very annoyed by the persistent reliance of using “BR1M” as justification. I am just going to wait and see what the government is going to do about this.

OK that was about the lower class. What about the middle class like you and me? I don’t have a direct thought but maybe the fact below might help explain how “ENERGY CRAVING” you and me are compared to our neighbours.



Country Electric consumption per capita kWh per capita

Brunei 8,507
Singapore 8,404
Thailand 2,316
Vietnam 1,073
Indonesia 680
Philippines 647
Myanmar 110
Cambodia 164

And then you have the Household final consumption expenditure per capita

Country International dollar ($)

Singapore 16,356
Brunei 10,671
Malaysia 7,316
Thailand 5,134
Indonesia 3,192
Philippines 2,871
Vietnam 1,923
Cambodia 1,353
Myanmar 203

If you know how to compare this chart, you will know 2 conclusions (if you don’t I will explain in a bit)

First -> we use a lot a lot of electricity. Seconded to Singapore and Brunei.
Second -> for the amont of electricity we are using, we are the second cheapest, only dearer to Brunei

Why second Cheapest?

You divide Table B by Table A, you get the cost of electricity per Unit across these countries.

Brunei -> cost per unit consumption USD 1.254 per unit capita
Singapore -> Cost per unit consumption USD 1.946 per unit capita
MALAYSIA -> Cost per unit consumption USD 1.723 per unit capita
Thailand -> Cost per unit consumption USD 2.217 per unit capita
Indonesia -> Cost per unit consumption USD 4.694 per unit capita
Philippines -> Cost per unit consumption USD 4.437 per unit capita
Vietnam -> Cost per unit consumption USD 1.792 per unit capita
Cambodia -> Cost per unit consumption USD 8.25 per unit capita
Myanmar -> Cost per unit consumption USD 1.845 per unit capita.

It simply means, Malaysia’s cost per unit KwH per capita is the second cheapest in the region, after Brunei. Places like Cambodia pays 4-5 times more than ours. Indonesian and Philippines pay twice more than us for electricity.

Moral of the story? If we want to keep on demanding more electricity, not only for our domestic and office use, but also our demand for PRODUCTS and SERVICES that requires more electricity generation, we must be prepared to pay for it like
A developed nation does – they pay much more than the table I showed. Try UK electricity bill.
Or at least like how our neighbours are willing to pay, except Brunei where the population is only 400k, lesser than the town of subang jaya but produce more oil than the half of the peninsular.

by the way, many household in Sabah and peninsular (Household, not capita) are enjoying free electriciyt. that amounts to 960,000 household, or 14.77 % of total household with electricity access. FREE. not a dime needed to be paid.

4 I heard that TNB declared a profit of RM4.6 billion, PROFIT! How come they won’t use the profit to subsidize the rising fuel (Natural gas, coal, LNG) cost?

Hello. You need to ring up an accountant friend and ask him or her or them the meaning of “CAPEX”.
You read CAPEX in biz section the star. You read CAPEX in EdgeOnline.
You just can’t be bothered to find out what CAPEX means.

Yes, TNB made RM 4.6 billion but guess how much they are spending on CAPEX – Capital Expenditure every year? RM 7 bilion! They have to spend that 7 billion every year to maintain the cables, build transformer, maintain distributor stations, build more and more cables etc. that is NOT factored into the P n L that give you the 4.6 billion profit. Here is some explanation on CAPEX from Izhar Moslim

"a) TNB is involved in power generation, transmission and distribution (IPPs only power generation). Hence they need a lot of Capital Expenditure in order finance the improvement of those three areas to satisfy the growing need of energy in our country

b) Examples of capital expenditure is to build more power generation plants, build more transmission lines, etc. These requires billions of ringgit and as you pointed out, around RM7 billion annually.

c) These CAPEX is not fully included in the P&L, because these money are raised in the form of loans (from banks, bonds, etc...)

d) What is reflected in the balance sheet is the instalment (principal + interest) payment that TNB makes

e) There is real profit made there i.e. RM4.6 bil. However, it is unwise to use that money to subsidise the people.

f) In the case of TNB, profits are generated to build more facilities to generate, transmit and distribute. This will create more job and business opportunities for the people of Malaysia. Not just that, their electricity production can also be efficient (older plants and facilities are inefficient)

g) From point #d above, TNB also needs to make money in order to repay the debt that they took.
What the credit ratings are saying is that TNB's balance sheet is not good as they are not getting the returns they are supposed to get because the tariffs are low, hence their capability to repay their debt is uncertain (debt growing ma)

h) When the tariff was increased, the market reacted positively i.e. TNB's share price increased significantly. This backs up my point #h."

Period. "


So if you are to say TNB should use the 4.6 billion to subsidize the fuel cost, let me tell you, there is no RM 4.6 billion around. It’s used to spend on CAPEX. The deficit? Government cover. Period.


If you bother to read until this far, bravo. There are something that I malas to put in here “Yet”, ie the LNG etc but if you are interested, maybe next few days la I shall share my view on that.

Have a good Tuesday!


P/s additional information. (Debunking the 15% myth)

i would like to reiterate the "quantum of the increment" and how it affects the people.

1) there are 6,500,000 (6.5 million) household accounts with TNB currently.

2) of these 6,500,000 household accounts, 960,000 (or 14.77%) are NOT paying a cent for electricity bill because they use below RM 20, even after the hike. FREE for them

3) 3,550,000 household (combined with the free, constitute 70.67%) household uses BELOW 300 kwh of electricity. they are NOT affected by the hike.

4.) only 29% of the household who uses more than 300 kwh of electricity are affected. the range of 15-17% are imposed on the 3rd band onwards. If you are using 360 kwh of electricity, the 15% increment only happens from 301 kwh to 360 kwh. which make it less than 15% in total. (could be just 1% increment if you are using say 303 kwh of electricity)

so any generalization of the increment as 15% - 17% is very inaccurate.

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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Bingkisan ringkas ekonomi Malaysia 9/10/2013

Ekonomi Malaysia telah berjaya mengharungi krisis kewangan global tahun 2008-2010 dan menjadikan kedudukan pasaran negara antara yang terbaik daripada kebanyakan negara Asia Tenggara dengan mengambil kira persekitaraan mesra pelabur dan lain-lain, dilindungi oleh permintaan domestik yang mantap membolehkan Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) menetapkan kadar faedah 3.0% yang tidak berubah selama hampir dua tahun setengah.

Walau bagaimanapun, baru-baru ini langkah kerajaan mengurangkan subsidi bahan api, membolehkan kenaikan harga gasoline dan diesel sebanyak 10.5% -11.1%. Pengurangan itu adalah yang pertama sejak dua tahun sebagai langkah untuk mengurangkan bajet defisit negara 4.5% berbanding GDP. Ini menimbulkan spekulasi bahawa bank negara akan menaikkan kadar OPR lebih awal daripada yang dijangkakan. Perdana Menteri merangkap Menteri Kewangan Mohd Najib Abdul Razak dijangka akan mengumumkan lebih pemotongan subsidi ketika bajet 2014 pada 25 Oktober nanti bersesuaian dengan dasar liberalisasi ekonomi yang diperkenalkan beliau.

Akibat desakan kenaikan harga bahan bakar, saya menjangkakan kadar inflasi (kenaikan harga barang) akan meningkat tahun depan setinggi 2.3% -3.0%. Tekanan ini akan mendorong bank negara untuk menaikkan kadar dasar semalaman (OPR) pada separuh pertama tahun depan.

Selain itu, Ringgit Malaysia baru-baru ini didagangkan pada tahap yang rendah (three-year low of 3.19987 per US dollar) di tengah-tengah kebimbangan mengenai lebihan jumlah akaun semasa di negara ini, yang mengecil sebanyak satu pertiga jika dibandingkan pada tahun lalu. Saya rasa situasi ini berpunca kebimbangan dengan tahap hutang negara, bajet defisit yang direkodkan sejak 1998 dan aliran keluar wang haram yang menjadi 'rekod' kepada Malaysia. Ini bertepatan seperti laporan yang dikeluarkan oleh Bloomberg dan rating agensi.

Selain itu, eksport Malaysia telah menguncup selama 5 bulan berturut-turut bermula pada Jun 2013 atas kekurangan permintaan global sehinggakan pada ogos lalu bank negara mengurangkan unjuran pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk tahun ini kepada 4.5% - 5 % daripada 5% -6% pada awalnya. Pertumbuhan GDP 4.2% dalam tempoh enam bulan pertama tahun ini adalah jauh di bawah sasaran 5+% pertumbuhan ekonomi Malaysia yang telah dicapai sejak tahun 2010.

Monday, June 3, 2013

BR1M vs Cukai eksais

Saya ditanya, antara polisi penurunan harga kereta dan pemberian dana secara langsung (seperti BR1M, BP1M dan BB1M) yang manakah lebih baik untuk rakyat dan untuk negara.

Pada asasnya kedua-duanya baik untuk rakyat. Penurunan harga kereta meningkatkan pendapatan boleh berbelanja rakyat manakala pemberian BR1M juga begitu.

Pemberian dana secara langsung bagi tahun 2012 dan 2013 melibatkan kos sebanyak RM6.4 billion. Jika kerajaan menaikkan kadar BR1M daripada RM500 ke RM1,200 serta menaikkan juga kadar BB1M dan BP1M, dijangka ia melibatkan implikasi kewangan sebanyak RM8 billion setahun.

Penurunan harga kereta pula hanya melibatkan pengurangan kadar duti eksais sebanyak 20% setahun. Jumlah duti eksais bagi kenderaaan bermotor (sebahagian besar adalah kereta) adalah sebanyak RM4 billion setahun. Jika ia diturunkan 20% setahun bermakna kerajaan kehilangan hasil sebanyak RM0.8 billion setahun. Rakyat (pembeli kereta) dapat berjimat sekitar RM100 sebulan atau RM1,200 setahun, menyamai manfaat BR1M.

Dari segi manfaat ia hampir sama. BR1M mensasarkan rakyat berpendapatan rendah manakala duti eksais yang diturunkan juga melibatkan kereta ber'cc' rendah yang kebanyakkan dibeli oleh rakyat berpendapatan rendah.

Bezanya adalah kos yang perlu ditanggung oleh kerajaan. Samada RM8 billion atau RM0.8 billion. Dalam keadaan bajet defisit selama 15 tahun berturut-turut serta jumlah hutang mencecah RM550 billion, apa pilihan yang bijak?

Erdogan dan kebangkitan rakyat Turki

Erdogan telah banyak membuat pembaharuan dalam ekonomi di Turki sehingga menjadikan Turki antara negara yang mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi terpesat di Eropah walaupun terpalit dengan krisis ekonomi. 

Beliau kekal sebagai ahli politik paling popular di negara itu setelah memenangi jawatan Perdana Menteri buat penggal ketiga berturut-turut. Namun sesebuah kerajaan tidak dapat memenuhi setiap citarasa rakyatnya. 

Para pengkritik erdogan yang kebanyakkannya dari parti pembangkang menganggap beliau sebagai autokratik yang cuba mencampur-adukkan agama dalam kehidupan peribadi di republik sekular itu. dan ada yang menuduhnya berkelakuan seperti sultan moden. 

Sekatan ke atas jualan alkohol bermulanya detik bantahan rakyat. Terbaru bantahan terhadap pembinaan bangunan untuk menggantikan Gezi Park. Pihak pemerintah berhasrat menubuhkan replika sebuah bangunan lama dan bersejarah yang pernah menjadi berek tentera kerajaan Uthmaniyyah satu masa lalu. Bangunan tersebut telah dirobohkan pada 1940 oleh parti pemerintah aliran Kemalism pada masa itu iaitu Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) – Republican People’s Party (RPP). Replika yang akan dibina tersebut akan menjadi sebuah pusat niaga. Namun bantahan timbul oleh segelintir rakyat karena pembinaan bangunan itu akan menghapuskan sebuah taman, lalu protes aman berlaku. 

Kekasaran pihak berkuasa menjadikan protes yang asalnya berlangsung aman bertukar agresif. Beribu-ribu demonstran mula memenuhi Taksim Square dan demonstrasi-demonstrasi turut berlangsung di tempat-tempat lain di Turki. Presiden Turki, Abdullah Gul telah memberi respon bahawa sepatutnya rakyat diizinkan untuk menyuarakan pandangan mereka dan layanan pihak polis tidak sepatutnya. 

Adakah tindakan itu gopoh bak kata seorang YB.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Malaysia dan hutang

Tidak ada masalah untuk berhutang. Individu, syarikat mahupun negara boleh berhutang asalkan ada tujuan mustahak dan tahu untuk membayar semula.

Biasanya kita berhutang sewaktu kita tiada/kurang duit dan kita akan membayar hutang tersebut apabila kita sudah ada/banyak duit.

Negara kita mengalami belanjawan defisit sejak tahun 1999 selepas Dr Mahathir menjadi Menteri Kewangan menggantikan Anwar Ibrahim yang dipecat. Kita akui, waktu itu negara berdepan dengan krisis kemelesetan ekonomi, maka banyak wang diperlukan untuk disuntik dalam pasaran bagi merancakkan ekonomi.

Kita juga akui bahawa pada waktu itu negara tidak punyai hasil yang banyak. Dividen Petronas pada tahun 1998 hanya berjumlah RM3.1 billion. Jika dicampur dengan cukai pendapatan petroleum (RM4.046 billion), royalti petroleum (RM1.1 billon) dan duti eksport petroleum (RM563 juta) ia hanya berjumlah RM8.81 billion. Ia mewakili 15.5 peratus daripada keseluruhan hasil negara bagi tahun 1998.

Pada tahun 2012, hasil negara berasaskan petroleum telah meningkat dengan ketara. Dividen Petronas bertambah 10 kali ganda iaitu RM30 billion. Jika dicampur dengan cukai pendapatan petroleum (RM31.97 billion), royalti petroleum (RM5.5 billion) dan duti eksport petroleum (RM2.39 billion) ia akan berjumlah RM69.86 billion. Ia mewakili 33.7 peratus daripada keseluruhan hasil negara bagi tahun 2012.

Petroleum tidak akan selamanya ada. Walaupun Petronas meluaskan aktivitinya di negara luar, petroleum di negara luar juga tidak kekal lama. Sampai masanya nanti, ia akan habis. Najib menjawab sehingga 2046 tetapi maklumat dalaman Petronas yang dibocorkan Wikileaks mendakwa tempoh itu akan lebih singkat.

Apabila hasil negara berkurangan, kita akan semakin sukar untuk melangsaikan hutang yang semakin bertimbun.

Hari ini kita berbelanja sakan. Bina menara tinggi mencakar bintang. Umum pelbagai program di situ dan disini. Tabur segala bagai umpan untuk menarik undi rakyat.

Hari esok, saat anak cucu kita mewarisi negara ini, hutang yang bertimbun mahu dibayar dengan apa?

Jangan pelik jika suatu hari nanti, kamera AES akan memenuhi jalanraya. Jangan pelik jika suatu hari nanti, lampin dan baju bayi juga dikenakan cukai (GST) yang tinggi. Jangan pelik jika suatu hari nanti, nak masuk masjid pun kena bayar bayar tol dan caj parking yang tak masuk akal.

Dalam tempoh 58 tahun, ini adalah kesempatan terbaik untuk kita membuat perubahan.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Analisis kepimpinan Najib pra-PRU-13

Sejak Najib Razak mengumumkan pelbagai inisiatif baharu kerajaan melalui NKRA dan Transformasi, saya positif untuk melihat hasilnya kepada negara. Antara perkara yang harus dipuji ialah peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara sehingga pertumbuhan pada 2012 merupakan antara yang tertinggi di Asia iaitu lebih daripada 5%. Pun begitu, masih tiada inisiatif untuk memperbaiki kerangka ekonomi semasa.

Perkara seterusnya yang tidak kurang mengujakan ialah janji untuk memperbaiki demokrasi di Malaysia. Hal ini termasuklah pengumuman untuk mengkaji semula ISA dan penambah baikan SPR. Namun, beberapa perkara masih perlu diperhalusi seperti semangat dialog terbuka, kebebasan media, dan kedaulatan undang-undang.

Sejak tahun 2009, Pejabat Perdana Menteri sudah tiga atau empat (tak pasti. Salah satu tentunya) kali surat rasmi untuk debat terbuka daripada Pejabat Ketua Pembangkang. Kesemuanya ditolak. Sehinggalah yang terbaru malam ini pun, apabila BERSIH mengadakan dialog untuk membentangkan manifesto PR dan BN, yang sepatutnya diwakili pemimpin tertinggi kedua-dua pihak, hanya Anwar Ibrahim yang hadir dialog tersebut. Najib tidak memberikan sebarang respons, sama ada beliau mahu hadir atau tidak walaupun sudah dijemput secara rasmi. Di sini, saya tidak nampak komitmen Najib untuk demokrasi yang lebih matang.

Berkenaan kebebasan media, adalah satu penghinaan terhadap demokrasi apabila Rais Yatim hanya membenarkan PR membentangkan manifesto selama 10 minit di televisyen, itu pun dirakam terlebih dahulu. Hal ini menafikan retorik untuk 'memperbaiki demokrasi', apabila BN mempunyai peluang 24 jam - rakaman dan juga siaran langsung - untuk membentangkan manifesto dan berkempen secara terus-terusan. Freedom House juga telah menyenaraikan Malaysia sebagai antara negara paling corot dalam kebebasan media!

Seterusnya, apabila Ketua Menteri Sarawak, Taib Mahmud menolak untuk bekerjasama dengan SPRM berkenaan beberapa kes rasuah yang didakwa melibatkan dirinya, dengan yakin sekali beliau mengatakan 'mereka tidak layak untuk mendapat kerjasama saya'. Sungguh menyedihkan, apabila undang-undang negara dihina sebegini rupa. Setakat ini, tiada tindakan atau teguran daripada kepimpinan tinggi BN. Adakah ini yang dikatakan 'memperbaiki demokrasi', apabila badan yang mempunyai autoriti tertinggi di Malaysia pun mampu dihalau mentah-mentah oleh seorang pemimpin politik?

Sudah 56 tahun BN berkuasa. Jika saya ditanya, saya katakan bahawa BN perlu direhatkan dan kerajaan baharu perlu diberi peluang. Saya tidak menafikan segala kemajuan di bawah BN selama 56 tahun, terutamanya semasa zaman Tun Mahathir, namun semua ini bukanlah sebab yang absah untuk mengekalkan BN, tambahan pula apabila PR juga menunjukkan bahawa mereka mampu mentadbir dengan cemerlang di negeri-negeri yang dikuasai mereka - dan hal ini disahkan melalui Laporan Audit Negara 2012.

Ada pihak berhujah mengatakan bahawa sejarah Jepun menukar kerajaan pada 2009 telah gagal, dan kesimpulan yang dibuat ialah pertukaran kerajaan merupakan sesuatu yang buruk untuk negara. Hujah ini merupakan satu falasi logik yang meletakkan korelasi sebagai hubungan sebab dan akibat (mistaking correlation to be causation). Hal ini kerana, kegagalan Jepun selepas 2009 adalah disebabkan masalah ekonomi yang dihadapi sejak awal 2000 yang lewat dicerap kebanyakan ahli ekonomi seperti deflasi dan isu kelesuan perbelanjaan (rujuk buku Prof. Paul Krugman, pemenang Hadiah Nobel Ekonomi 2008), bukannya disebabkan pertukaran kerajaan! Insya-Allah, jika tiada aral, saya akan menulis lebih lanjut berkenaan ketempangan hujah yang memaksakan pengalaman Jepun ke atas tatanan politiko-ekonomi Malaysia.

Masalah logik yang kedua pula ialah, apabila satu contoh - dalam kes ini, Jepun - dijadikan generalisasi kalut (over-generalization) yang akhirnya menafikan contoh-contoh yang membawa konotasi berbeza. Mengapa tidak dilihat pertukaran kerajaan di Amerika Syarikat pada 2008, Australia ketika John Howard tewas, UK pada 2010, dan Perancis pada 2012?

Harapan saya, saya mahu Malaysia yang lebih baik. Demokrasi lebih matang serta masalah ekonomi diselesaikan pada kerangka asasnya, bukan melalui pemberian wang seperti BR1M yang tidak menyelesaikan masalah sara hidup rakyat - walaupun sedikit membantu menambah wang tunai.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Ramalan keputusan PRU-13

Paluang gendang Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 mula dipalu oleh kedua-dua pihak samada Barisan Nasional mahupun Pakatan Rakyat. masing- masing begitu yakin dapat menguasai Putrajaya sekaligus membentuk kerajaan Persekutuan Malaysia.

Berikut merupakan ramalan serta pemerhatian saya semenjak tiga bulan sebelum ini berdasarkan perbincangan dan penglihatan kepada trend rakyat malaysia keseluruhannya.


saya juga menjangka kerusi cina akan bertambah dipihak pembangkang manakala kerusi melayu akan memberi kelebihan kepada BN. kerusi campuran masih didominasi oleh BN.

BN 148
PR 74